Best FPL Transfers for Gameweek 4: Gakpo, Tzolakis & Saka
Cody Gakpo is the standout Gameweek 4 transfer target on 6.71 projected points — Liverpool host Fulham, a fixture rated 2 out of 5 for difficulty, and he is owned by just 13.8% of managers at £7.2m. Hull's Tzolakis (5.87) and Arsenal's Saka (5.79) follow.
The short version
Five names, all owned by fewer than one in seven managers, all projected to return between 5.64 and 6.71 points in Gameweek 4. That is a tight cluster, and it matters: the gap between the top pick and the fifth is small enough that price, position and what your squad actually needs should decide this, not the decimal points.
One honest caveat before we go further. Our confidence in each of these projections sits at 30% — this is early-season data, three or four games in, and the sample is thin. Treat the ranking as a guide to where the value probably is, not as a promise.
1. Gakpo — the pick with the friendliest week
Cody Gakpo, Liverpool, MID, £7.2m — 6.71 projected points
The case here is the fixture. Liverpool are at home to Fulham, rated 2 out of 5 for difficulty, which is as gentle as anything on this list. Gakpo's form reading of 9.3 is the highest of the five, built on 28 points from 250 minutes with 1 goal and 3 assists banked.
The underlying numbers are worth a second look, because they tell two different stories. His expected assists figure of 1.2 broadly supports the three assists — that is a player genuinely creating. His expected goals total of 0.36 does not really support much goal output at all, so the single goal may be closer to the ceiling of what the chances have merited. If you are buying Gakpo, buy him as a creator with a soft home fixture, not as a nailed-on scorer.
Minutes are the other thing to weigh. We have him at 77 expected minutes with a 90% chance of starting, which is solid but not untouchable — and Liverpool's forward line is the sort of place where a manager rotates without warning. At £7.2m he is not a squad-breaking outlay, and 13.8% ownership means he still offers something over the crowd. Ceiling of 12.88 if it all lands.
2. Tzolakis — the cheapest way to fix a problem
Konstantinos Tzolakis, Hull City, GKP, £4.6m — 5.87 projected points
If your goalkeeper slot is a mess, this is the transfer that solves it for the least money. £4.6m, 26 points already this season, 3 clean sheets from 270 minutes and a form figure of 8.7. Only 9.1% of managers have him, which for a keeper performing at this level is genuinely low.
But read the fixture before you click. Hull travel to Chelsea, difficulty 4 out of 5 — the hardest game any player on this list faces. Our projection of 5.87 already prices that in, and it is still the second-best number here, which tells you how much the save points and the underlying pattern are carrying him. A keeper on a busy afternoon can rack up saves even in a defeat; that is the mechanism doing the work, not a clean sheet you should be counting on.
The ceiling of 7.92 is the honest bit. Goalkeepers do not explode. You are buying reliability at a price that frees money elsewhere, not a differential that wins you a week. Minutes look secure at 77 expected and a 90% chance of starting.
3. Saka — the premium you already know about
Bukayo Saka, Arsenal, MID, £9.5m — 5.79 projected points
Saka is the most expensive name on the list at £9.5m and, on projection alone, he is behind two cheaper players. That is the whole argument in a sentence.
What you get for the money is the ceiling: 11.83, second only to Gakpo. And unlike Gakpo, Saka's underlying attacking numbers point at goals — 1.5 expected goals against 2 actually scored, from 246 minutes. His expected assists sit at 0.35 and he has no assists yet, so the creative side has not clicked, which for a player of his profile feels like something that corrects rather than a permanent state.
Arsenal go to Sunderland, difficulty 3 out of 5 — a mid-range trip, neither a gift nor a trap. Form of 7.3 is the lowest of the five, and 11.4% ownership is surprisingly thin for a player at this price point. If you have the funds and want a captaincy option for the weeks ahead, this is a defensible use of a transfer. If you are scraping the budget together, the two names above give you more per pound.
4 & 5. Ødegaard and Scott — the value plays
Martin Ødegaard, Arsenal, MID, £6.6m — 5.75 projected points
The same Sunderland fixture as Saka at nearly three pounds less. Ødegaard has 24 points from 221 minutes — the fewest minutes of anyone here — with 2 goals, a form figure of 8, and underlying numbers that read evenly across both ends of the pitch: 1.01 expected goals and 1.05 expected assists. Ceiling of 10.85. If you want Arsenal attacking exposure and cannot stretch to Saka, this is the same bet cheaper, with slightly less upside.
Alex Scott, Bournemouth, MID, £6.0m — 5.64 projected points
The genuine differential. Just 4% ownership, the lowest here by a distance, and Bournemouth are at home to Brentford (difficulty 3 out of 5). Scott has 24 points from 266 minutes with 1 goal and 2 assists and a form reading of 8.
The caution: his expected goals of 0.33 and expected assists of 0.3 are the thinnest underlying figures on this list. The 24 points have come from finishing and fortune more than volume of chances. At £6.0m with a ceiling of 10.46 the downside is limited, but do not talk yourself into thinking this is a proven output profile. It is a cheap punt with a nice fixture.
The table
| Player | Pos | Price | Projected | Ceiling | Owned | Fixture (diff) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gakpo (LIV) | MID | £7.2m | 6.71 | 12.88 | 13.8% | Fulham (H), 2 |
| Tzolakis (HUL) | GKP | £4.6m | 5.87 | 7.92 | 9.1% | Chelsea (A), 4 |
| Saka (ARS) | MID | £9.5m | 5.79 | 11.83 | 11.4% | Sunderland (A), 3 |
| Ødegaard (ARS) | MID | £6.6m | 5.75 | 10.85 | 13.1% | Sunderland (A), 3 |
| Scott (BOU) | MID | £6.0m | 5.64 | 10.46 | 4% | Brentford (H), 3 |
All five are listed as available, all five are on 77 expected minutes with a 90% chance of starting, and all five carry the same 30% confidence rating.
What we would actually do
One transfer, no hit: Gakpo. Best projection, softest fixture, sensible price.
If your keeper is the weak link, Tzolakis first — 5.87 from a £4.6m player is the most efficient thing on this page, even into a difficulty-4 trip.
And if you are hunting rank rather than protecting it, Scott at 4% ownership is the only name here that most of your mini-league does not have. Just go in knowing the underlying numbers are light.
Questions
- Who is the best transfer for Gameweek 4?
- Cody Gakpo of Liverpool, on 6.71 projected points — the highest of our five targets. Liverpool are at home to Fulham in a fixture rated 2 out of 5 for difficulty, he carries a form figure of 9.3, and at £7.2m with 13.8% ownership he is still reasonably underowned. Our confidence in the projection is 30%, so treat it as a lean rather than a lock.
- Is Tzolakis a good FPL goalkeeper pick at £4.6m?
- On projection, yes. He is on 5.87 projected points, has 26 points and 3 clean sheets from 270 minutes, and is owned by only 9.1% of managers. The catch is a trip to Chelsea rated 4 out of 5 for difficulty, and a ceiling of 7.92 — this is a reliable, budget-freeing pick rather than a big-upside one.
- Should I spend £9.5m on Saka in GW4?
- Only if you can afford it comfortably. Saka is projected 5.79 points, behind both Gakpo and Tzolakis despite costing far more, and his form reading of 7.3 is the lowest of our five targets. What you are paying for is the 11.83 ceiling and 1.5 expected goals from 246 minutes at just 11.4% ownership.
- Who is the best differential for Gameweek 4?
- Alex Scott of Bournemouth, owned by just 4% of managers at £6.0m and projected 5.64 points at home to Brentford (difficulty 3 of 5). Be aware his underlying numbers are thin — 0.33 expected goals and 0.3 expected assists — so the 24 points so far have leaned on finishing rather than chance volume.