Best FPL Transfers for Gameweek 9: Muharemović, Neto & Saka

Muharemović is the best transfer for Gameweek 9 on our projections, at 6 projected points for £5.0m with a 97% chance of starting away at Bournemouth. Neto follows on 5.45. Saka appears in the rankings on 5.22 but is ruled out with a thigh injury — do not buy him this week.

The short version

Three names came out of our Gameweek 9 projections as underowned and well-rated. One of them you should buy, one you should think hard about, and one you should not touch under any circumstances. Let's deal with them in that order — and then look at two more that arguably deserve your transfer more than the headline act.

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1. Muharemović (LEE, DEF, £5.0m) — 6 projected points

Top of the pile, and the easiest one to argue for. Muharemović is projected for 6 points this week, the highest figure in this group, from a £5.0m defender owned by just 5.5% of managers. That combination — cheap, underowned, top of the ranking — is the shape of transfer you want when you only have one to spend.

The minutes are about as secure as they come. We have him at 85 expected minutes with a 97% chance of starting, and he has already banked 630 minutes this season. This is not a squad player having a nice run; he is in the team.

The output backs it up at his price point. 34 points so far at 4.9 points per game, with 2 assists and 2 clean sheets. No goals yet, and his expected goals of 0.55 suggests you should not budget for many, but his projection here is driven mainly by a clean sheet, then bonus, then a goal, then an assist — so the goal threat is a bonus rather than the thesis.

The honest caveats. His recent form reads 3.5, which is a long way below what we are projecting for this week, and our confidence in the projection sits at 50%. The fixture is away at Bournemouth, rated 3 out of 5 — fine, not a gift, and Bournemouth are a side you would rather face at home. So this is a projection leaning on underlying quality and nailed-on minutes rather than on a player in red-hot touch against a soft opponent.

Still, at £5.0m you are not asking for much. A defender who plays 85 minutes every week and occasionally keeps a clean sheet pays for himself and frees money elsewhere. If your fifth defender is a bench-filler who does not start, this is a clean upgrade.

2. Neto (CHE, MID, £6.5m) — 5.45 projected points

The most interesting name on the list, and the one with the best story behind the number.

Neto is projected for 5.45 points, owned by 3.6% of managers, and his recent form reads 10 — the highest form figure of anyone here. He has 3 goals and 1 assist from 504 minutes, with expected goals of 1.21 and expected assists of 0.88, so there is a little overperformance baked into those returns but not an absurd amount. 34 points at 4.9 points per game from a £6.5m midfielder is solid value.

What separates him from the rest of this list is confidence. Our confidence in this projection is 100% — the only player here at that level. Everyone else sits at 50%. That does not mean the points are guaranteed; it means the model is not hedging about the inputs. Combined with 77 expected minutes and a 96% chance of starting, you are buying a player we are reasonably sure will be on the pitch doing the things he has been doing.

The drag is the fixture: at home to Man Utd, difficulty 4 out of 5. That is the second-toughest draw in this group and it is why a player in form of 10 is only projected for 5.45 rather than something gaudier. His ceiling if things go well is 6.82, the second-highest here, so the upside is real if Chelsea get at them.

At 3.6% ownership, this is a genuine differential. If you fancy Chelsea at home and have £6.5m to work with, it is a defensible punt. If you want a quiet life in Gameweek 9, the fixture gives you a reason to wait.

3. Saka (ARS, MID, £9.6m) — do not buy

Saka shows up third on projected points at 5.22, and we are going to be blunt: ignore it. His availability status is ruled out, with a thigh injury and an unknown return date. There is no date to plan around, which is the worst version of an injury for transfer planning.

It is worth saying why he was ever on this list. 37 points at 5.3 points per game, expected goals of 3.63 against 3 actual goals, expected assists of 1.2 against 0 assists — that is a player underperforming his underlying numbers, which is usually the setup for a buy. His recent form of 2.5 reflects the dip, and at 10.5% ownership he is the most-owned player here, so plenty of managers are sitting on him.

But £9.6m for a player ruled out with no return date is money doing nothing. If you own him and he is not playing, selling is reasonable. If you do not own him, wait for news. There is nothing clever to do here.

Two more worth your transfer

Evanilson (BOU, FWD, £6.1m) — 5.2 projected points. Recent form of 9.5, 98% chance of starting, 86 expected minutes, 5.9% owned. He has 2 goals and 4 assists this season and his projection is driven mainly by an assist, then a goal, then bonus — unusual for a forward, but it matches the profile. At home to Leeds, difficulty 3 out of 5, he is the most reliable-looking attacker on this list.

Manzambi (AVL, MID, £6.0m) — 5.02 projected points. The best fixture of the lot, at home to Fulham at difficulty 2 out of 5, and 7.5 points per game from just 254 minutes. But that small sample is the point: 66 expected minutes is the lowest here, and he carries a calf injury with a 75% chance of playing. At 2.9% ownership the differential upside is huge. The risk is you spend a transfer on someone who does not start.

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The picks at a glance

If you only make one move

Muharemović. Highest projection in the group, cheapest price, and the minutes are not in doubt. It is the lowest-regret transfer on the board — and in a week where the flashier names come with injury flags or difficulty-4 fixtures, low regret is worth something.